Once again New Zealand may have peaked early and the pressure of a World Cup on home soil maybe too great for the All Blacks. There is no denying that while they continue to turn up to World Cups with talented teams things never seem to go their way, whether it’s a Carlos Spencer meltdown in 2003 or an inability to put away a French side that grew in confidence in 2007 New Zealand have underperformed on the biggest stage of International rugby for some time and unless they can get off to a flyer to settle the nerves of players and fans alike it could be a long autumn for Graham Henry.
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| MaCaw and Carter need a huge tournament for the All Blacks |
Henry has just named his side for the opening game against Tonga and there are no fewer than nine changes from the side that lost to Australia. Kieran Reed has been lost through injury but big name players such as Mils Muliaina, Conrad Smith and Keven Mealamu omitted from the squad while Piri Weepu only makes the bench with Jimmy Cowan getting the nod at scrum half. Smith’s departure paves the way for Sonny-Bill Williams to stake a claim for the 12 jersey in a formidable centre partnership with Ma’a Nonu. Henry is looking for the fringe players such as Israel Dagg, Richard Kahui and Victor Vito to step up as Tonga will be geared up for a game against the host and will prove to be a physical and imposing challenge.
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| Quade Cooper could star |
Australia will undoubtedly bring an attractive brand of rugby to the tournament and could be a breath of fresh air alongside several forward dominated controlled teams who will look to defend strong and play a territorial game. The half back combination of Will Genia and Quade Cooper could dazzle and set in motion of the most dynamic attacking games you will see as Adam Ashley Cooper, James O’Conner and Kurtley Beale are all capable of slicing open any defence in the world given the right ball. The key to success will ultimately rely on the forwards and in particular the tight five if Australia are to stand any chance, the back row matches up well against any in the world and David Pocock is heir apparent to Ritchie Macaw’s title of best seven in the game but without a platform at the scrum, lineout and contact areas the mercurial talents will never get the chance to shine, they must compete and while they do not have to be dominant they need parity to be in with a chance.
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| Can South Africa repeat their 2007 triumph |
South Africa on the other hand are the polar opposite, nobody has any concern about the pack, as long as the correct front row is picked, as there is a wealth of talent and experience and the forwards that only make the bench would walk into nearly every other international starting line-up, it is the backs who will need to do just enough to ensure victory. The players though are not the problem in my opinion it is the game plan and the coaching staff that strangle the ambition and creativity of a team that should be world beaters. Coach Peter de Villiers claims that Jon Smit is the best Hooker in the world are laughable at best and downright deluded at worst, he isn’t even the best Hooker in his national or club side as compatriot Bismarck Du Plessis lays claim to that crown in everyone’s eyes apart from the controversial De Villiers. Smit has been an excellent player and his leadership roles are second to none but his ability round the park and in the scrum just isn’t what it used to be, a wonderful back up but no longer the world’s best. South Africa however do have the ability to win, Fourie Du Preez is the perfect scrum half and Brian Habana and JP Peterson have electric pace out wide but a negative approach to the game has left a bad taste in the mouth on several occasions as Morne Steyn seems content to put boot to ball and Jack Fourie (possible the best pure centre in the world), Jean De Villiers, Patrick Lambie and Francois Steyn are reduced to kick chasing and tackling. South Africa would be my favourites for the trophy if they can overcome their coach.
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| Marc Lievremont's France are wild cards |
Of the northern hemisphere teams it will be a herculean task for any to leave New Zealand with the trophy. Best equipped to cause a shock would be France, who certainly have the talent but are another team that have coaching issues, this time so severe that Marc Lievremont will not be there after the tournament whatever the outcome. France have all the right components with a perennial powerhouse scrum and talented back row forwards and steady and tactically aware half back combination and enough pace and flair in the backs to cause teams problems. It is however the same Gallic flair and unpredictability that does not bode well for tournament success, they may turn in the performance of the World Cup and blow a side out of the water but they may also implode and head home under a cloud like the soccer side at the 2010 FIFA World Cup.
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| Can Jonny kick England to glory |
England will be expecting a semi final berth and could yet cause a shock like they did four years ago reaching the final in Paris but once again looked slightly under prepared and lacking in key positions for a serious challenge. It was clear in the three warm up games that Martin Johnson still does not know his first choice XV, some of this is due to injury as he has had to wait on the likes of Andrew Sheridan and Ben Youngs but the centre problems that have plagued England for the past eight years are still there and they are travelling without a true number seven no matter what spin they management try to put on things. There is a bright side to this campaign however as many of the recent success stories are young players who have taken their chances when presented to them and form and injury aside will be the backbone of the 2015 tournament. Dan Cole, Courtney Lawes, Tom Wood, Ben Youngs, Manu Tuilagi and Ben Foden will all be available for years to come and currently form the spine of a team that can flash brilliance and if Johnny Wilkinson can set the wheels in motion a successful tournament is not out of the question but a solid performance and an emergence of key young players would be a more likely outcome.
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| Are Wales 2011 Dark Horse's |
The possible dark horse of the World Cup could be Wales as there is no lack of talent on show and a good showing in the warm up games especially in Cardiff against England will have lifted the confidences of the whole squad. Again a few selection issues have been brought about due to injury with the decimation of the front row but if Gethin Jenkins and Adam Jones can stay healthy the pack can compete and young talent such as Sam Warburton and Danny Lydiate could shine. The backs also have the talent to make a real run as James Hook, Jonathon Davies, and George North combining with the experience of Jamie Roberts, Shane Williams and Lee Byrne will test any defence. As with England this could be just too early for the team to lift the trophy but certainly a team to watch and a real side for 2015 and the future.
The three remaining Six Nation teams along with Argentina may struggle to make it out of the group stages with only two places remaining. Scotland and Argentina will vie for the runner up spot in Pool B if all goes to plan and Ireland or Italy should round off things from Pool C.
Ireland have been on a shocking run of form and apart from a big win to stop England winning the Grand Slam have been well off the pace, but should make it through to the last eight. Yet another team blighted with injury especially in the forwards and there key players namely Brian O’Driscoll, Paul O’Connell, Donncha O’Callaghan and Ronan O’Gara are all the wrong side of 30. Ireland will play territory but really should start with Jonny Sexton and take the reins of the lad from Leinster as there likely quarter final opponents South Africa do everything the Irish do just ten times better.
Scotland will need to target their clash with Argentina on September 25 and hope the Pumas are the side easily brushed aside by Wales and not last times surprise package. A good forward pack is sadly let down by little flair behind. With little creativity in the backs Scotland’s defence will have to be immense and they cannot afford to fall behind and have to play expansive catch up rugby if they are to even progress out of the pool.
Argentina mirror the Scots in that the forwards look impressive and they have one of the best in the world in Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe but without the mercurial Juan Martin Hernandez there just isn’t the spark or the reliable goal kicker to put them over the top as in 2007. They will be physical and should front up better than in the warm up against Wales but a lack of top class rugby will haunt them until they can join the Southern Hemisphere giants on a regular basis.
Italy’s tale is a similar story to the previous two, powerful forwards, a class player in the back row in Sergio Parisse but nothing behind the scrum to worry anybody. They did beat France in the Six Nations and will look to front up and cause problems but in a pool with Australia and an Ireland team that should be good enough to beat them it is unlikely they will progress, they real challenge will come against Russia and the USA where they will look to prove their superior reputation.
The three Polynesian teams will certainly look t make an impact in more ways than one, Tonga are unlucky to be in with New Zealand and France but the final game in Wellington against the French should be the runner up decider so there is a chance of an upset. However it is Pool D which both Fiji and Samoa lie in wait for a Welsh slump that there could be a shock especially if Wales are a bit dinged up going into what will be a physical last game against Samoa who boast power and pace a plenty.
The World Cup is rounded off by Namibia, Russia, USA, Canada, Japan, Romania and Georgia. These teams will be targeting the games against each other for a memorable victory at a major tournament, so Japan v Canada, Georgia v Romania and USA v Russia will all be intriguing contests. Namibia have drawn the short straw of Samoa and Fiji to go along with South Africa and Wales in Pool D.
So the infamous prediction, I can’t see any of the smaller teams causing an upset and te only bone of contention will be Scotland or Argentina to get out of Group B with the winner rewarded with the All Blacks. New Zealand should comfortably reach the semi final to face South Africa and Australia matched up against the winner of the likely England/France quarter final, my money is on England for a very predictable final four, Wales if they hit form have the capabilities to beat Australia but it is unlikely and with the way South Africa handled New Zealand it could well be an Australia South Africa final with the weather determining the victor as good conditions favour Australia while poor weather tips the balance to South Africa. I know that’s a fence sitting cop out but so be it.
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